Watchability Index — Week 4

Ranks upcoming games by three model-derived components: team quality (percentile net rating), closeness (how far the model's win probability sits from a coin flip), and playoff stakes (average playoff probability of the two teams). Games against non-FBS opponents are excluded — no reliable rating for those.

  1. #1Oregon at USCconf. game

    Model pick: Oregon by 5.1 (34% home win prob.)

    81.5
    watchability
    Quality
    96
    Closeness
    68
    Stakes
    83
  2. #2Texas A&M at LSUconf. game

    Model pick: Texas A&M by 2.2 (43% home win prob.)

    78.5
    watchability
    Quality
    95
    Closeness
    87
    Stakes
    43
  3. #3Ole Miss at Floridaconf. game

    Model pick: Florida by 4.7 (63% home win prob.)

    71.7
    watchability
    Quality
    94
    Closeness
    74
    Stakes
    37
  4. #4South Carolina at Alabamaconf. game

    Model pick: Alabama by 6.7 (68% home win prob.)

    69.4
    watchability
    Quality
    94
    Closeness
    64
    Stakes
    44
  5. #5Texas at Tennesseeconf. game

    Model pick: Texas by 8.2 (26% home win prob.)

    67.5
    watchability
    Quality
    95
    Closeness
    51
    Stakes
    55
  6. #6Wisconsin at Penn Stateconf. game

    Model pick: Penn State by 0.8 (51% home win prob.)

    65.4
    watchability
    Quality
    74
    Closeness
    98
    Stakes
    0
  7. #7Clemson at Californiaconf. game

    Model pick: Clemson by 3.8 (40% home win prob.)

    65.2
    watchability
    Quality
    84
    Closeness
    80
    Stakes
    15
  8. #8UCLA at Marylandconf. game

    Model pick: UCLA by 2.0 (46% home win prob.)

    64.4
    watchability
    Quality
    79
    Closeness
    91
    Stakes
    1
  9. #9Missouri at Mississippi Stateconf. game

    Model pick: Mississippi State by 1.7 (58% home win prob.)

    64.4
    watchability
    Quality
    87
    Closeness
    85
    Stakes
    0
  10. #10Northwestern at Indianaconf. game

    Model pick: Northwestern by 0.8 (48% home win prob.)

    63.2
    watchability
    Quality
    70
    Closeness
    97
    Stakes
    0
  11. #11Georgia Tech at Stanfordconf. game

    Model pick: Georgia Tech by 0.3 (49% home win prob.)

    61.3
    watchability
    Quality
    62
    Closeness
    99
    Stakes
    1
  12. #12Arizona at Washington State

    Model pick: Arizona by 0.5 (46% home win prob.)

    61.2
    watchability
    Quality
    65
    Closeness
    93
    Stakes
    6
  13. #13Oklahoma at Georgiaconf. game

    Model pick: Georgia by 14.4 (83% home win prob.)

    59.5
    watchability
    Quality
    95
    Closeness
    34
    Stakes
    51
  14. #14Boise State at Western Michigan

    Model pick: Boise State by 0.2 (49% home win prob.)

    58.6
    watchability
    Quality
    50
    Closeness
    98
    Stakes
    8
  15. #15Minnesota at Washingtonconf. game

    Model pick: Washington by 5.0 (64% home win prob.)

    57.4
    watchability
    Quality
    81
    Closeness
    72
    Stakes
    1
  16. #16TCU at UCFconf. game

    Model pick: TCU by 1.5 (46% home win prob.)

    56.9
    watchability
    Quality
    57
    Closeness
    92
    Stakes
    1
  17. #17Southern Miss at Tulane

    Model pick: Tulane by 0.4 (51% home win prob.)

    55.8
    watchability
    Quality
    46
    Closeness
    98
    Stakes
    2
  18. #18UNLV at Akron

    Model pick: UNLV by 0.7 (49% home win prob.)

    53.7
    watchability
    Quality
    39
    Closeness
    99
    Stakes
    2
  19. #19Vanderbilt at Auburnconf. game

    Model pick: Auburn by 8.0 (69% home win prob.)

    52.0
    watchability
    Quality
    78
    Closeness
    62
    Stakes
    0
  20. #20Colorado at Baylorconf. game

    Model pick: Baylor by 6.4 (68% home win prob.)

    51.2
    watchability
    Quality
    68
    Closeness
    64
    Stakes
    7
  21. #21Notre Dame at Purdue

    Model pick: Notre Dame by 16.6 (13% home win prob.)

    51.0
    watchability
    Quality
    80
    Closeness
    26
    Stakes
    50
  22. #22UConn at Miami (OH)

    Model pick: UConn by 0.4 (50% home win prob.)

    50.6
    watchability
    Quality
    30
    Closeness
    100
    Stakes
    0
  23. #23Utah at Iowa Stateconf. game

    Model pick: Utah by 5.8 (36% home win prob.)

    48.7
    watchability
    Quality
    55
    Closeness
    71
    Stakes
    4
  24. #24Nebraska at Michigan Stateconf. game

    Model pick: Nebraska by 7.2 (30% home win prob.)

    48.3
    watchability
    Quality
    70
    Closeness
    59
    Stakes
    1
  25. #25Colorado State at UTSA

    Model pick: UTSA by 6.0 (67% home win prob.)

    46.2
    watchability
    Quality
    51
    Closeness
    66
    Stakes
    7
  26. #26Virginia Tech at Boston Collegeconf. game

    Model pick: Virginia Tech by 7.7 (31% home win prob.)

    46.1
    watchability
    Quality
    61
    Closeness
    61
    Stakes
    1
  27. #27Louisiana at Charlotte

    Model pick: Louisiana by 3.6 (41% home win prob.)

    45.9
    watchability
    Quality
    34
    Closeness
    82
    Stakes
    4
  28. #28Iowa at Michiganconf. game

    Model pick: Michigan by 17.8 (89% home win prob.)

    45.8
    watchability
    Quality
    80
    Closeness
    22
    Stakes
    35
  29. #29Troy at Utah State

    Model pick: Utah State by 1.6 (55% home win prob.)

    44.4
    watchability
    Quality
    25
    Closeness
    89
    Stakes
    0
  30. #30Wake Forest at Louisvilleconf. game

    Model pick: Louisville by 8.8 (72% home win prob.)

    43.9
    watchability
    Quality
    59
    Closeness
    57
    Stakes
    2
  31. #31San Diego State at Toledo

    Model pick: San Diego State by 4.6 (35% home win prob.)

    43.4
    watchability
    Quality
    42
    Closeness
    71
    Stakes
    2
  32. #32Oklahoma State at West Virginiaconf. game

    Model pick: West Virginia by 6.2 (68% home win prob.)

    42.8
    watchability
    Quality
    49
    Closeness
    64
    Stakes
    1
  33. #33Illinois at Ohio Stateconf. game

    Model pick: Ohio State by 25.8 (96% home win prob.)

    42.4
    watchability
    Quality
    79
    Closeness
    7
    Stakes
    47
  34. #34James Madison at Old Dominionconf. game

    Model pick: James Madison by 0.9 (48% home win prob.)

    42.3
    watchability
    Quality
    12
    Closeness
    95
    Stakes
    0
  35. #35Rice at Fresno State

    Model pick: Fresno State by 4.1 (60% home win prob.)

    42.3
    watchability
    Quality
    30
    Closeness
    79
    Stakes
    0
  36. #36Liberty at Coastal Carolina

    Model pick: Liberty by 3.7 (39% home win prob.)

    41.5
    watchability
    Quality
    27
    Closeness
    79
    Stakes
    2
  37. #37Kansas State at Cincinnaticonf. game

    Model pick: Kansas State by 9.6 (25% home win prob.)

    40.6
    watchability
    Quality
    54
    Closeness
    50
    Stakes
    7
  38. #38Houston at Georgia Southern

    Model pick: Houston by 9.8 (27% home win prob.)

    40.1
    watchability
    Quality
    52
    Closeness
    53
    Stakes
    3
  39. #39Tulsa at Arkansas

    Model pick: Arkansas by 10.5 (75% home win prob.)

    38.9
    watchability
    Quality
    53
    Closeness
    50
    Stakes
    2
  40. #40Hawai'i at Wyomingconf. game

    Model pick: Hawai'i by 3.4 (41% home win prob.)

    37.5
    watchability
    Quality
    15
    Closeness
    81
    Stakes
    0
  41. #41Northern Illinois at Georgia State

    Model pick: Georgia State by 6.0 (64% home win prob.)

    34.8
    watchability
    Quality
    18
    Closeness
    72
    Stakes
    0
  42. #42Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville Stateconf. game

    Model pick: Jacksonville State by 6.0 (68% home win prob.)

    34.6
    watchability
    Quality
    25
    Closeness
    64
    Stakes
    0
  43. #43Oregon State at UTEP

    Model pick: Oregon State by 7.1 (29% home win prob.)

    34.3
    watchability
    Quality
    30
    Closeness
    59
    Stakes
    1
  44. #44App State at NC State

    Model pick: NC State by 15.2 (84% home win prob.)

    33.5
    watchability
    Quality
    58
    Closeness
    31
    Stakes
    3
  45. #45South Florida at Bowling Green

    Model pick: South Florida by 9.4 (27% home win prob.)

    33.4
    watchability
    Quality
    30
    Closeness
    55
    Stakes
    5
  46. #46Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

    Model pick: Florida Atlantic by 6.5 (32% home win prob.)

    33.3
    watchability
    Quality
    22
    Closeness
    64
    Stakes
    1
  47. #47Ball State at Kent Stateconf. game

    Model pick: Kent State by 5.2 (66% home win prob.)

    32.1
    watchability
    Quality
    13
    Closeness
    68
    Stakes
    0
  48. #48South Alabama at Kentucky

    Model pick: Kentucky by 14.5 (86% home win prob.)

    31.9
    watchability
    Quality
    58
    Closeness
    29
    Stakes
    0
  49. #49New Mexico at New Mexico State

    Model pick: New Mexico by 8.5 (30% home win prob.)

    29.4
    watchability
    Quality
    16
    Closeness
    59
    Stakes
    0
  50. #50Delaware at Virginia

    Model pick: Virginia by 12.2 (80% home win prob.)

    28.3
    watchability
    Quality
    34
    Closeness
    41
    Stakes
    0
  51. #51Sam Houston at Texas Tech

    Model pick: Texas Tech by 18.5 (91% home win prob.)

    28.2
    watchability
    Quality
    51
    Closeness
    19
    Stakes
    11
  52. #52Central Michigan at Miami

    Model pick: Miami by 27.6 (98% home win prob.)

    28.0
    watchability
    Quality
    53
    Closeness
    5
    Stakes
    29
  53. #53Missouri State at SMU

    Model pick: SMU by 21.6 (94% home win prob.)

    22.5
    watchability
    Quality
    48
    Closeness
    13
    Stakes
    3
  54. #54Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

    Model pick: Arkansas State by 12.2 (80% home win prob.)

    21.8
    watchability
    Quality
    17
    Closeness
    40
    Stakes
    0
  55. #55Massachusetts at Sacramento Stateconf. game

    Model pick: Sacramento State by 14.1 (84% home win prob.)

    16.9
    watchability
    Quality
    11
    Closeness
    32
    Stakes
    0
  56. #56Army at Templeconf. game

    Model pick: Temple by 22.0 (94% home win prob.)

    12.0
    watchability
    Quality
    20
    Closeness
    13
    Stakes
    0
  57. #57Air Force at Nevadaconf. game

    Model pick: Nevada by 20.5 (92% home win prob.)

    8.9
    watchability
    Quality
    7
    Closeness
    16
    Stakes
    0
  58. #58Navy at UABconf. game

    Model pick: UAB by 38.0 (100% home win prob.)

    8.5
    watchability
    Quality
    23
    Closeness
    1
    Stakes
    1