Playoff picture
12-team CFP probabilities from a Monte Carlo simulation over the model's posterior: 5 automatic bids go to the highest-ranked conference champions, the other 7 spots go to the best of everyone else. "Ranked" here is a proxy (net rating minus a penalty per loss) standing in for real committee judgment — the single biggest approximation in this number, not the simulation itself.
138 of 138 teams
| # | Team | Conference | Record | Conf. champ | Auto-bid | Playoff prob. ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | SEC | 3-0 | 42.4% | 42.4% | 99.8% |
| 2 | Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 3-0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.2% |
| 3 | Texas | SEC | 3-0 | 23.4% | 23.4% | 99.1% |
| 4 | Oregon | Big Ten | 2-1 | 39.9% | 39.9% | 98.9% |
| 5 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 2-1 | 30.1% | 30.1% | 94.7% |
| 6 | Alabama | SEC | 3-0 | 16.4% | 16.4% | 81.5% |
| 7 | Michigan | Big Ten | 3-0 | 15.6% | 15.6% | 70.2% |
| 8 | USC | Big Ten | 4-0 | 10.1% | 10.1% | 66.9% |
| 9 | Texas A&M | SEC | 2-1 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 66.7% |
| 10 | Miami | ACC | 3-0 | 51.9% | 51.9% | 58.7% |
| 11 | Florida | SEC | 3-0 | 8.4% | 8.4% | 49.2% |
| 12 | Ole Miss | SEC | 3-0 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 25.3% |
| 13 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 3-0 | 22.8% | 22.8% | 22.9% |
| 14 | Clemson | ACC | 2-1 | 20.3% | 20.3% | 21.1% |
| 15 | BYU | Big 12 | 3-0 | 18.9% | 18.7% | 18.7% |
| 16 | LSU | SEC | 2-1 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 18.2% |
| 17 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 3-0 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.4% |
| 18 | UTSA | American Athletic | 2-1 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| 19 | Baylor | Big 12 | 2-1 | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| 20 | Tennessee | SEC | 3-0 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 10.9% |
| 21 | Marshall | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| 22 | Boise State | Pac-12 | 2-1 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| 23 | South Florida | American Athletic | 3-0 | 11.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| 24 | California | ACC | 2-1 | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| 25 | Louisiana | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 18.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| 26 | Utah | Big 12 | 3-0 | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| 27 | Washington State | Pac-12 | 1-2 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 28 | Arizona | Big 12 | 2-1 | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 29 | Western Michigan | Mid-American | 2-1 | 20.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| 30 | SMU | ACC | 2-1 | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| 31 | South Carolina | SEC | 2-1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 5.6% |
| 32 | Houston | Big 12 | 2-1 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| 33 | San Diego State | Pac-12 | 1-2 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 34 | Texas State | Pac-12 | 1-2 | 12.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 35 | Southern Miss | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 36 | Tulsa | American Athletic | 3-0 | 8.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 37 | Arizona State | Big 12 | 2-1 | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| 38 | UNLV | Mountain West | 1-2 | 48.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 39 | Memphis | American Athletic | 3-1 | 11.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 40 | Liberty | Conference USA | 2-1 | 21.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 41 | Louisville | ACC | 2-1 | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 42 | App State | Sun Belt | 3-0 | 14.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 43 | Colorado | Big 12 | 2-1 | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 44 | NC State | ACC | 1-2 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 45 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 3-0 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 46 | TCU | Big 12 | 2-1 | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 47 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 1-2 | 13.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 48 | UAB | American Athletic | 1-2 | 8.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 49 | Florida Atlantic | American Athletic | 2-1 | 14.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| 50 | Florida State | ACC | 1-2 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 51 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 3-0 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 52 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 3-0 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 53 | Colorado State | Pac-12 | 2-1 | 9.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 54 | Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 0-3 | 26.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 55 | Oklahoma | SEC | 2-1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| 56 | UCLA | Big Ten | 3-0 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 57 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 1-2 | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 58 | North Carolina | ACC | 2-1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 59 | New Mexico | Mountain West | 2-1 | 18.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 60 | Tulane | American Athletic | 1-2 | 6.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 61 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 2-1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 62 | UCF | Big 12 | 2-1 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 63 | Temple | American Athletic | 1-2 | 8.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 64 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 4.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 65 | Fresno State | Pac-12 | 2-1 | 3.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 66 | Jacksonville State | Conference USA | 2-2 | 18.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 67 | Washington | Big Ten | 3-0 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 68 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 2-1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 69 | Toledo | Mid-American | 2-1 | 8.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 70 | Mississippi State | SEC | 3-0 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 71 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 3.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 72 | Akron | Mid-American | 1-2 | 21.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 73 | Maryland | Big Ten | 2-1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 74 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 2-0 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 75 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 3-0 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 76 | Syracuse | ACC | 1-2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 77 | Duke | ACC | 3-0 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 78 | Virginia | ACC | 2-1 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 79 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 2-1 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 80 | Penn State | Big Ten | 3-0 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 81 | Missouri | SEC | 3-0 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 82 | Troy | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 2.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 83 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 2-1 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 84 | Kansas | Big 12 | 1-2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 85 | Iowa | Big Ten | 3-0 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 86 | Purdue | Big Ten | 1-2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 87 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 5.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 88 | North Dakota State | Mountain West | 4-0 | 5.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 89 | Florida International | Conference USA | 1-2 | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 90 | Auburn | SEC | 2-1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 91 | Eastern Michigan | Mid-American | 1-3 | 18.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 92 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 3-0 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 93 | Boston College | ACC | 2-1 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 94 | Miami (OH) | Mid-American | 1-2 | 8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 95 | Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 96 | East Carolina | American Athletic | 1-2 | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 97 | Rice | American Athletic | 1-2 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 98 | Kentucky | SEC | 2-1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 99 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 3-0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 100 | Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 101 | Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | 2-1 | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 102 | Central Michigan | Mid-American | 2-1 | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 103 | Indiana | Big Ten | 3-0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 104 | Hawai'i | Mountain West | 1-2 | 8.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 105 | Illinois | Big Ten | 2-1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 106 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 2-1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 107 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 0-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 108 | Army | American Athletic | 1-1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 109 | Air Force | Mountain West | 1-1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 110 | Arkansas | SEC | 1-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 111 | Kent State | Mid-American | 1-2 | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 112 | Navy | American Athletic | 1-1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 113 | Missouri State | Conference USA | 1-2 | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 114 | Massachusetts | Mid-American | 3-0 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 115 | Bowling Green | Mid-American | 0-3 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 116 | Delaware | Conference USA | 2-1 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 117 | Charlotte | American Athletic | 0-3 | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 118 | Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 119 | Ball State | Mid-American | 1-2 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 120 | Kennesaw State | Conference USA | 1-2 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 121 | Buffalo | Mid-American | 1-2 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 122 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | 3-0 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 123 | Nevada | Mountain West | 1-2 | 5.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 124 | Stanford | ACC | 1-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 125 | Sacramento State | Mid-American | 1-3 | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 126 | Sam Houston | Conference USA | 1-2 | 4.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 127 | Ohio | Mid-American | 1-2 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 128 | Northern Illinois | Mountain West | 0-3 | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 129 | New Mexico State | Conference USA | 1-2 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 130 | Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 131 | North Texas | American Athletic | 1-2 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 132 | San José State | Mountain West | 2-2 | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 133 | UL Monroe | Sun Belt | 0-3 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 134 | UConn | FBS Independents | 2-1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 135 | Utah State | Pac-12 | 0-3 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 136 | UTEP | Mountain West | 1-2 | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 137 | Wake Forest | ACC | 2-1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 138 | Wyoming | Mountain West | 1-2 | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |