Worth the replay?

1. #1

   Wake ForestatMississippi St

   CFB· ESPN

   D

   30/100
   ▸ Why this grade

   Late tension13/30

   Swings17/25

   Comeback8/20

   Decided late3/15

   Back-and-forth3/10

   Drama 43 × pre-game weight 0.70 (pre-game Watchability 40, estimated) = 30

2. #2

   NavyatCincinnati

   CFB· ESPN

   D

   19/100
   ▸ Why this grade

   Late tension1/30

   Swings15/25

   Comeback8/20

   Decided late0/15

   Back-and-forth3/10

   Drama 27 × pre-game weight 0.70 (pre-game Watchability 40, estimated) = 19

3. #3

   ArizonaatSMU

   CFB· FoxOne-sided

   D

   8/100
   ▸ Why this grade

   Late tension3/30

   Swings6/25

   Comeback0/20

   Decided late0/15

   Back-and-forth0/10

   Drama 9 × pre-game weight 0.82 (pre-game Watchability 65, estimated) = 8

4. #4

   RiceatTexas St

   CFB· ESPNUOne-sided

   D

   3/100
   ▸ Why this grade

   Late tension0/30

   Swings4/25

   Comeback0/20

   Decided late0/15

   Back-and-forth0/10

   Drama 4 × pre-game weight 0.70 (pre-game Watchability 40, estimated) = 3

Ranked from each game's win probability as it was played (ESPN's for football and basketball; ours, from the goals, for hockey): how in doubt it was near the end, how far the winner came back from, how late it was decided, how big its momentum swings were and how often a team erased a deficit, with a bonus for overtime. That drama is then weighted by how good a matchup it was going in (its pre-game Watchability score), so a thriller between top teams ranks above an equally wild game between minor ones.