Worth the replay?

1. #1

   James MadisonatLouisville

   CFB· ESPN2

   C

   41/100
   ▸ Why this grade

   Late tension23/30

   Swings17/25

   Comeback6/20

   Decided late8/15

   Back-and-forth5/10

   Drama 58 × pre-game weight 0.70 (pre-game Watchability 40, estimated) = 41

2. #2

   N IllinoisatMaryland

   CFB· BTNOne-sided

   D

   8/100
   ▸ Why this grade

   Late tension3/30

   Swings6/25

   Comeback0/20

   Decided late3/15

   Back-and-forth0/10

   Drama 12 × pre-game weight 0.70 (pre-game Watchability 40, estimated) = 8

3. #3

   W IllinoisatNorthwestern

   CFB· BTNOne-sided

   D

   0/100
   ▸ Why this grade

   Late tension0/30

   Swings0/25

   Comeback0/20

   Decided late0/15

   Back-and-forth0/10

   Drama 0 × pre-game weight 0.70 (pre-game Watchability 40, estimated) = 0

4. #4

   E WashingtonatBoise St

   CFB· FS1One-sided

   D

   0/100
   ▸ Why this grade

   Late tension0/30

   Swings0/25

   Comeback0/20

   Decided late0/15

   Back-and-forth0/10

   Drama 0 × pre-game weight 0.70 (pre-game Watchability 40, estimated) = 0

Ranked from each game's win probability as it was played (ESPN's for football and basketball; ours, from the goals, for hockey): how in doubt it was near the end, how far the winner came back from, how late it was decided, how big its momentum swings were and how often a team erased a deficit, with a bonus for overtime. That drama is then weighted by how good a matchup it was going in (its pre-game Watchability score), so a thriller between top teams ranks above an equally wild game between minor ones.