NHL Playoff Bracket Projection
The most likely first-round matchups in each conference: the top three teams in each division plus two wild cards. Early in the season the odds are spread widely and the bracket will move a lot.
East
West
Playoff spot odds
How often each team finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd in its division, or takes the better (WC1) or lower (WC2) wild card, across thousands of simulated seasons. Numbers are percent chance. Teams are listed by playoff odds; click a column header to sort by it.
East
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | WC1 | WC2 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina HurricanesMet | 71 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 2% | |
| Tampa Bay LightningAtl | 30 | 21 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 18% |
| New Jersey DevilsMet | 16 | 34 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 21% |
| Boston BruinsAtl | 19 | 19 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 25% |
| Florida PanthersAtl | 17 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 29% |
| Montreal CanadiensAtl | 17 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 29% |
| Washington CapitalsMet | 7 | 22 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 36% |
| Toronto Maple LeafsAtl | 6 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 54% |
| Buffalo SabresAtl | 5 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 56% |
| Ottawa SenatorsAtl | 5 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 57% |
| New York IslandersMet | 2 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 66% |
| New York RangersMet | 2 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 70% |
| Columbus Blue JacketsMet | 1 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 73% |
| Pittsburgh PenguinsMet | 3 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 83% | |
| Detroit Red WingsAtl | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 86% | |
| Philadelphia FlyersMet | 3 | 1 | 2 | 93% |
West
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | WC1 | WC2 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton OilersPac | 70 | 21 | 6 | 1% | ||
| Minnesota WildCen | 50 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2% |
| Colorado AvalancheCen | 21 | 27 | 23 | 13 | 7 | 9% |
| Vegas Golden KnightsPac | 23 | 45 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 9% |
| Dallas StarsCen | 18 | 24 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 12% |
| Utah MammothCen | 9 | 15 | 22 | 19 | 13 | 23% |
| Nashville PredatorsCen | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 54% |
| Anaheim DucksPac | 2 | 11 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 55% |
| Los Angeles KingsPac | 2 | 8 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 61% |
| Seattle KrakenPac | 1 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 63% |
| St. Louis BluesCen | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 63% |
| San Jose SharksPac | 1 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 69% |
| Calgary FlamesPac | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 91% | |
| Winnipeg JetsCen | 1 | 3 | 5 | 91% | ||
| Chicago BlackhawksCen | 1 | 98% | ||||
| Vancouver CanucksPac | 100% |
Teams are placed in the single most likely bracket from the spot odds: each team gets the spot that maximizes the total chance of every team landing where it is placed, so a team can sit in a spot other than its single likeliest one. The better division winner plays the lower wild card, the other division winner plays the better wild card, and 2 plays 3 in each division. The number beside each team is its projected point total.