NFL Playoff Scenario Builder
Pick the winner of any remaining game involving a team with at least a 3% playoff chance, and every contender's odds update to match.
Pick results on the left. Odds below are the model's current numbers.
| Team | Now | Scenario | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills7-1 | 97% | 97% | |
| Jaguars6-2 | 95% | 95% | |
| 49ers7-1 | 93% | 93% | |
| Broncos7-2 | 92% | 92% | |
| Bengals6-2 | 91% | 91% | |
| Chiefs6-2 | 88% | 88% | |
| Bears7-2 | 81% | 81% | |
| Steelers6-2 | 78% | 78% | |
| Lions6-2 | 72% | 72% | |
| Giants5-2-1 | 69% | 69% | |
| Vikings6-2 | 69% | 69% | |
| Packers6-3 | 67% | 67% | |
| Patriots5-4 | 61% | 61% | |
| Seahawks5-4 | 51% | 51% | |
| Buccaneers3-6 | 50% | 50% | |
| Rams5-4 | 45% | 45% | |
| Texans3-5 | 38% | 38% | |
| Cowboys4-5 | 32% | 32% | |
| Browns5-4 | 28% | 28% | |
| Panthers3-5 | 23% | 23% | |
| Saints3-5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Falcons3-6 | 16% | 16% | |
| Raiders4-5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Ravens4-5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Commanders2-5-1 | 11% | 11% |
Covers every team with at least 3% playoff odds. Ties aren't simulated, and division and wild-card tiebreakers follow the model's approximation of the league's rules. Odds come from the simulated seasons that match your picks, scaled back slightly toward today's odds: backtests showed the raw share overstates how far results move a team, so this matches the team pages. This page runs its own, larger set of 40,000 simulated seasons, so “Now” can differ by a point or two from the Playoff Odds page.