NFL Playoff Bracket Projection
AFC
First-round bye
1
Buffalo Bills12.4-4.6
Wild-card round
2
Cincinnati Bengals11.6-5.4
7
Cleveland Browns8.7-8.3
3
Denver Broncos11.3-5.7
6
Pittsburgh Steelers11.0-6.0
4
Jacksonville Jaguars11.6-5.4
5
New England Patriots10.3-6.7
NFC
First-round bye
1
Minnesota Vikings11.4-5.6
Wild-card round
2
San Francisco 49ers11.9-5.1
7
Green Bay Packers9.6-7.4
3
New York Giants8.7-7.3
6
Detroit Lions10.4-6.6
4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8.1-8.9
5
Chicago Bears11.3-5.7
Seed odds
How often each team lands on each conference seed across thousands of simulated seasons. Seed 1 gets the first-round bye. Numbers are percent chance. Teams are listed by playoff odds; click a column header to sort by it.
AFC
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 29 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 16 | 19 | 21 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 10% | |
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 17% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 15 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 17% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 22% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 23% |
| New England Patriots | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 24% |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 66% | |
| Houston Texans | 3 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 73% | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 75% | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 77% | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 2 | 95% | |||||
| New York Jets | 1 | 98% | ||||||
| Miami Dolphins | 98% | |||||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 99% | |||||||
| Tennessee Titans | 99% |
NFC
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 34 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 12% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 23 | 11 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 20% | |
| Chicago Bears | 15 | 12 | 2 | 22 | 16 | 11 | 21% | |
| Detroit Lions | 14 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 32% | |
| New York Giants | 4 | 10 | 23 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 41% | |
| Green Bay Packers | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 49% | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 50% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 16 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 51% | ||
| Los Angeles Rams | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 58% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 69% | ||
| Carolina Panthers | 2 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 72% | ||
| Atlanta Falcons | 1 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 77% | ||
| Washington Commanders | 1 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 77% | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 4 | 8 | 2 | 85% | ||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 4 | 1 | 92% | ||||
| Arizona Cardinals | 2 | 3 | 94% |
Seeds are the single most likely bracket from the seed odds below: each team gets the seed that maximizes the total chance of every team landing where it is placed (division winners hold seeds 1-4), so a team can sit on a seed other than its single likeliest one. The number beside each team is its projected record.