NBA Playoff Bracket Projection
The most likely first-round matchups in each conference, with the play-in already played out. Early in the season the odds are spread widely and the bracket will move a lot.
East
First round
1
Detroit Pistons55.4 W
8
Atlanta Hawks42.1 W
4
Cleveland Cavaliers48.6 W
5
New York Knicks49.0 W
3
Boston Celtics51.4 W
6
Toronto Raptors46.4 W
2
Philadelphia 76ers52.5 W
7
Miami Heat41.1 W
West
First round
1
San Antonio Spurs58.7 W
8
Golden State Warriors41.4 W
4
Minnesota Timberwolves52.2 W
5
Los Angeles Lakers49.2 W
3
Houston Rockets56.6 W
6
Portland Trail Blazers45.3 W
2
Oklahoma City Thunder57.2 W
7
Denver Nuggets44.9 W
Seed odds
How often each team lands on each conference seed (after the play-in) across thousands of simulated seasons. Numbers are percent chance. Teams are listed by playoff odds; click a column header to sort by it.
East
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 32 | 20 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 19 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 8% |
| Boston Celtics | 17 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 10% |
| New York Knicks | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 14% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 16% |
| Toronto Raptors | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 23% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 39% |
| Miami Heat | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 43% |
| Orlando Magic | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 56% | |
| Washington Wizards | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 60% | |
| Indiana Pacers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 65% | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 75% | ||
| Chicago Bulls | 2 | 2 | 94% | ||||||
| Brooklyn Nets | 1 | 2 | 95% | ||||||
| Milwaukee Bucks | 1 | 97% |
West
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 32 | 22 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 24 | 22 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4% |
| Houston Rockets | 22 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 10 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 10% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 5 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 17% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 31% |
| Denver Nuggets | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 32% |
| Golden State Warriors | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 48% | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 59% | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 63% | ||
| Phoenix Suns | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 65% | ||
| New Orleans Pelicans | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 83% | ||||
| Utah Jazz | 2 | 3 | 5 | 89% | |||||
| LA Clippers | 3 | 3 | 92% | ||||||
| Sacramento Kings | 99% |
Seeds are the single most likely bracket from the seed odds: each team gets the seed that maximizes the total chance of every team landing where it is placed, so a team can sit on a seed other than its single likeliest one. The number beside each team is its projected win total. Seeds 7 and 8 are decided by the play-in tournament.