Conference title races

Each team's chance to win its conference (title games included), and for playoff contenders, what the title is worth: their playoff odds with it and without it. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get automatic bids, along with the best Group of 5 champion.

SEC

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

Georgia8-1

>99% with title, 91% without

54%

>99% / 91%

Alabama7-2

>99% with title, 90% without

22%

>99% / 90%

Texas7-2

>99% with title, 76% without

12%

>99% / 76%

Tennessee7-2

>99% with title, 53% without

>99% / 53%

Kentucky7-2

>99% with title, 23% without

>99% / 23%

ACC

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

Miami8-1

>99% with title, 77% without

67%

>99% / 77%

Wake Forest8-1

>99% with title, 24% without

16%

>99% / 24%

SMU7-2

>99% with title, <1% without

>99% / <1%

Louisville6-3

>99% with title, <1% without

>99% / <1%

Duke7-2

1% playoff odds

1% overall

Big 12

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

Utah9-0

>99% with title, 77% without

47%

>99% / 77%

Texas Tech8-1

>99% with title, 25% without

26%

>99% / 25%

Oklahoma State6-3

>99% with title, <1% without

>99% / <1%

BYU7-2

>99% with title, 34% without

>99% / 34%

Houston7-2

>99% with title, 18% without

>99% / 18%

Arizona7-2

>99% with title, 4% without

>99% / 4%

Baylor6-3

>99% with title, <1% without

>99% / <1%

Big Ten

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

Indiana8-1

>99% with title, 52% without

44%

>99% / 52%

UCLA9-0

>99% with title, 74% without

29%

>99% / 74%

Oregon6-3

>99% with title, 31% without

>99% / 31%

Ohio State6-3

>99% with title, 18% without

>99% / 18%

Iowa7-2

>99% with title, 20% without

>99% / 20%

Wisconsin6-3

3% playoff odds

3% overall

USC7-2

>99% with title, 10% without

>99% / 10%

Pac-12

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

Boise State8-1

78% with title, 1% without

62%

78% / 1%

Texas State5-4

<1% playoff odds

26%

<1% overall

Oregon State5-4

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

Utah State4-5

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

San Diego State4-5

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

Mountain West

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

New Mexico8-1

16% with title, <1% without

58%

16% / <1%

North Dakota State7-2

17% with title, <1% without

26%

17% / <1%

Wyoming6-3

<1% playoff odds

12%

<1% overall

Air Force7-2

1% playoff odds

1% overall

UNLV5-4

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

Conference USA

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

Liberty8-1

9% with title, <1% without

67%

9% / <1%

Jacksonville State7-2

2% playoff odds

31%

2% overall

Middle Tennessee5-4

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

American Athletic

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

North Texas7-2

9% with title, <1% without

33%

9% / <1%

UTSA7-2

13% with title, <1% without

26%

13% / <1%

Memphis7-2

15% with title, <1% without

26%

15% / <1%

Army5-4

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

East Carolina5-4

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

Florida Atlantic6-3

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

Sun Belt

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

Louisiana Tech7-2

3% playoff odds

39%

3% overall

James Madison8-2

2% playoff odds

37%

2% overall

Georgia Southern5-4

<1% playoff odds

18%

<1% overall

Louisiana6-3

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

Mid-American

Team · playoff odds

Title

Playoff: with / without title

Western Michigan7-3

<1% playoff odds

40%

<1% overall

Toledo8-2

<1% playoff odds

23%

<1% overall

Buffalo7-3

<1% playoff odds

17%

<1% overall

Ohio7-3

<1% playoff odds

17%

<1% overall

Miami (OH)6-4

<1% playoff odds

<1% overall

Teams with at least a 1% title chance. The with/without split is shown for teams with at least a 3% playoff chance; it's shrunk toward each team's current odds the same way as the rooting guide. Title game stakes are each team's playoff odds if it reaches its conference title game and wins or loses there. Each team links to its full path to the playoff.