College Football Playoff Bracket Projection
Seed odds
How often each team lands on each seed across thousands of simulated seasons (numbers are percent chance). Seeds 1–4 get a first-round bye. Teams are listed by average seed; click any column header to sort by it.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 17 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6% | |
| Georgia | 33 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15% | |
| Indiana | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 19% | |
| Utah | 4 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 28% | |
| Alabama | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 32% | |
| Notre Dame | 3 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 31% | ||||
| UCLA | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 44% | |
| Texas | 12 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 43% | |||
| Ole Miss | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 49% | |
| Ohio State | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 45% | |
| BYU | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 53% | |
| Texas Tech | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 55% | |||
| LSU | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 51% | |
| Wake Forest | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 68% | |||||
| Kentucky | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 59% | |
| Tennessee | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 62% | |
| Houston | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 72% | |||||
| USC | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 89% | ||||||
| Iowa | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 79% | |||||
| Missouri | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 73% | |
| Boise State | 2 | 26 | 72% | ||||||||||
| Liberty | 15 | 84% | |||||||||||
| Arizona | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 89% | |||||||
| New Mexico | 1 | 15 | 84% | ||||||||||
| UTSA | 1 | 13 | 86% | ||||||||||
| Oregon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 88% | ||||||
| North Dakota State | 4 | 95% | |||||||||||
| South Carolina | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 88% |
Each first-round winner plays the bye team beside it. The field follows the 2026 selection rule: the likeliest ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions and the best Group-of-5 champion get automatic bids, Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top twelve, and the rest are the best remaining teams. Seeds are the single most likely bracket from the seed odds below: each team gets the seed that maximizes the total chance of every team landing where it is placed, so a team can sit on a seed other than its single likeliest one. The number beside each team is its projected final record; AQ marks a projected automatic bid.